Where have all Toronto's killers gone?

The numbers above tell a story: Something remarkable appears to be happening in Toronto. Canada's largest city is on pace for the fewest number of murders in a decade.

If the current trend continues, there should be roughly 54 homicides on the books by the end of 2009 (45 killings after 10 months). The body count hasn't been that low since 1999, when there were 49 killings. The death toll has never been below 60 in the last decade.

In 2005, Toronto's so-called 'Year of the Gun,' when there was a spate of gun killings, including the slaying of an innocent girl, 15-year-old Jane Creba, there was public outcry, media frenzy, and a political firestorm over the apparent chaos in the streets, the decay of social order and the brutish behaviour of lawless gangs.

So what happened in four short years, to return Toronto to its post-Millennial peace? You might be tempted to suggest that a police crackdown has restored order. But don't forget that two years after the 'Year of the Gun' crackdown began, in 2007, Toronto recorded its highest number of homicides in 10 years (84). Why wasn't the crackdown working that year? And what about random slayings of innocent citizens? Surely the lowly total indicates the eradication of such heinous crimes?

No so. Just last year, a 47-year-old shopkeeper, Hou Chang Mao, was stacking oranges at the streetfront of his Gerrard Street supermarket when a gunfight broke out. The father of two was shot and killed. His killing remains unsolved. He was one of two innocent bystanders killed in a one-week span in 2008. Bystander killings continue in Toronto.

How about the eradication of gangs? Gang murders are on the rise, Statistics Canada says, and account for one in every four murders nationally.

And what about the bolstering of police resources? Maybe more 'boots on the street ' has made a big difference.

Statistics don't support that notion. In the past 40 years, Canada had the most police officers on duty (as a ratio of population) in 1975. In that four-decade span, the highest murder rate was recorded that same year, in 1975.

So maybe the answer, though an incomplete and unsatisfying one, is that violent crime like murder is just too difficult to explain simply. There are too many factors at play – too many variables to quantify to reason why the rate is heading up or down. Which means, of course, that you should be wary of anyone – politician, cop, activist, lobbyist – claiming they understand why murders are taking place, or that they know how to prevent them.

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